In November 2025, Black unemployment rose to 8.3 percent, according to federal labor data. That rate marked the highest level outside the COVID-19 pandemic. It nearly doubled the national unemployment rate, which stood near 4.6 percent.
Outside of COVID, the last comparable period occurred during the Great Recession recovery from 2009 to 2011. During that era, Black unemployment routinely exceeded 8 percent, peaking above 13 percent.
“The unemployment rate rose to the highest since 2021. It’s risen considerably more for Black … workers and for teenagers, demographic groups whose unemployment rates tend to be leading indicators of the outlook for the broader job market,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Economists say the current surge mirrors early warning signs seen before deeper economic downturns.
A Sharp Reversal From Recent Gains
In January 2025, Black unemployment hovered near 6 percent, reflecting continued post-pandemic recovery strength led by the Biden-Harris Administration.
Black workers reached historic unemployment lows in 2022 and 2023. Many believed the labor market had stabilized. That stability unraveled quickly in early 2025, due to President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
By May 2025, hiring slowed as layoffs spread across major employers. By September 2025, Black unemployment surpassed 7.5 percent, confirming a rapid reversal.
Federal Layoffs and Corporate Cuts Hit Black Workers Hard
In 2025, roughly 300,000 Black women were let go or laid off from federal government jobs. These layoffs followed workforce reduction policies also enacted by the Trump administration. Many of the affected workers held long-term positions across federal agencies.
At the same time, major corporations reduced staffing amid rising costs and slowing demand. Amazon, UPS, Target, Verizon, Meta, IBM, Paramount, and Nestlé all announced job cuts in 2025. These reductions eliminated thousands of roles across logistics, retail, media, and technology.
Tariffs, Slowing Demand, and Economic Pressure
President Trump’s expanded tariffs consequently raised costs for manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. Companies cited higher input prices and tighter margins when announcing layoffs. Some firms froze hiring or reduced payrolls to offset tariff-related expenses.
Shipping demand weakened throughout spring and summer 2025, affecting companies like UPS and Amazon. Retailers such as Target scaled back corporate staff as consumer spending slowed.
Together, these pressures reduced job availability for Black workers.
Why Black Unemployment Rises First
Historically, Black workers experienced job losses earlier during economic slowdowns. The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated this pattern clearly.
During that era, it took years of targeted policy to bring the rate down. Today, the challenge is compounded by stubborn inflation and high interest rates, which dampen the small business growth that often serves as an engine for community employment.
For many families, this is not just a statistic; it is a loss of household stability. With Black workers typically facing longer durations of unemployment—averaging over 20 weeks compared to 10 weeks for their white counterparts—the risk of long-term economic scarring is high.
Black workers remain overrepresented in cyclical industries and public sector employment. When downturns hit, layoffs reach Black communities first and recovery arrives last.
“Two Worlds” exists for Black and white job seekers
Throughout 2025, the labor market has diverged into “two worlds.” While the overall national unemployment rate sits at a relatively modest 4.6%, the rate for Black workers is nearly double that figure.
This “2-to-1” ratio is a haunting historical echo, but the speed of the current ascent is what has economists concerned. In just six months, the Black unemployment rate jumped from roughly 6.3% to its current peak, erasing years of progress that saw record-low unemployment for the community in the early 2020s.
A few structural factors are driving this decline:
- Federal Downsizing: Black workers, especially women, are significantly overrepresented in the federal civilian workforce. Recent aggressive cuts to agencies—totaling over 270,000 jobs since January—have directly impacted this stable source of middle-class Black employment.
- Sectoral Shifts: High-growth sectors that previously bolstered Black employment, such as professional services and manufacturing, have cooled. In manufacturing, new tariff policies have increased input costs, leading to hiring freezes and layoffs in roles where Black workers are concentrated.
- The AI Wave: Front-line service and clerical roles, which have high levels of minority representation, are being automated at a faster pace than higher-wage white-collar roles, leading to a “skills gap” that is difficult to bridge overnight.
Why This Moment Demands Accountability
Black unemployment functions as a leading economic indicator. Similar increases preceded the Great Recession.
Economists warn the 2025 surge should not be ignored. Economic progress for Black communities remains fragile. Policy decisions shape outcomes, not inevitability. The data demands accountability, not excuses.
As we head into 2026, the question for policymakers is whether the current trend is a temporary adjustment to a shifting economy or the beginning of a deeper structural recession. Without intervention or a pivot in labor policy, the progress of the last decade risks being entirely undone.