Tensions in Latin America escalated after the U.S. military strike and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, over the New Year’s Eve weekend.
President Trump proclaimed that now America “will be running Venezuela” since the Maduro regime has lost control of its borders to narcos and allegedly facilitated the trafficking of fentanyl to the U.S., killing over 70,000 Americans in 2023 alone.
President Trump’s move to relaunch America’s 50 year War Against Drugs with boat strikes in the Caribbean and threats of regime change in Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia marks a new low in U.S.-Latin America relations.
However, history has shown that aggressive militarization of America’s cities to fight crime will end in mass incarceration of Black and Latino communities in the U.S. Moreover, regime change in Latin America to deter drug trafficking will only lead to more violence, political instability, and mass migration.
To fight against drug trafficking, Washington needs a new policy approach to Latin America grounded in regional security cooperation, strategic business investment, development, and diplomacy.
Over the last 50 years, Washington’s policy approach to militarizing US cities and Latin American capitals has failed. Fentanyl deaths have increased from 14% in 2016 to 63% in 2024. Opioid addiction has skyrocketed. Drug trafficking continues.
Destabilizing Black America Through Venezuela
Much like the 1980s War on Drugs, Trump’s recent rollback of civil rights, targeted attacks on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), and mass federal layoffs echo the harmful policies of the Reagan and Nixon eras.
These systemic actions have historically and disproportionately affected Black Americans, contributing to a rise in Black unemployment to 8.3% compared to 4.4 % of the national population average, with a particularly devastating impact on Black youth.
Trump’s domestic agenda to defund the Department of Education, cut food assistance benefits, and cripple state government budgets has created ripe conditions for a rise in Black poverty and crime. He has already sent the National Guard to fight crime and deployed more ICE agents in majority-Black and Latino cities.
As Trump intensifies his War on Drugs against Venezuela, the number of arrests in Black neighborhoods will skyrocket. While the fentanyl crisis has mostly impacted rural White America in states like West Virginia, Black Americans account for 22.6 % of fentanyl deaths, even though they represent only 13.7% of the total population.
According to the United States Sentencing Commission, fentanyl drug trafficking has dramatically increased from 1,023 offenses in FY 2020 to 3,639 in FY 2024. Roughly 41.3% of fentanyl drug traffickers were Hispanic, 35.5% were Black, 20.9% White, and 2.3% were other races in FY 2024.
In sharp contrast to marijuana and other recreational drugs, fentanyl offenses carry severe federal penalties; nearly 97% of those convicted are sentenced to prison, with an average term of over six years.
America’s failed drug war has caused mass incarceration, with Black Americans representing 37% of the prison population.
Trump’s New Latin America Strategy: Colonization
Now that the Trump Administration has won the first domestic battle, it can move on to tackling fentanyl drug trafficking internationally.
The idea that the U.S. can “run Venezuela” without colonizing its land, people, and government is absurd. And mainstream media have mostly given the Trump Administration a clear pass on its modern-day colonization project.
Instead of calling this act what it is, a blatant assertion of imperial power, they have focused on whether the policy move makes military or economic sense.
In addition, media pundits act as if Venezuela did not gain its independence from Spain in 1811.
While Congress debates whether the military strike violates international law and the Constitution, President Trump moves full steam ahead and meets with America’s top oil executives to revive Venezuela’s oil industry.
In the span of a week, the Trump Administration has shifted its Venezuelan motives from drug trafficking to oil exploration. What has been largely ignored is the human, racial, moral, and regional cost of destabilizing a Latin American nation.
Furthermore, Trump’s strategy treats Latin America like a chessboard, capturing the “rogue king (Nicolás Maduro)” in Caracas while using neighboring countries like the Dominican Republic as pawns.
The Washington Post reported that regional governments quietly enabling U.S. operations only underscores the imbalance of power at play, with a long and painful history of foreign intervention.
If Trump expands this strategy, turning his sights toward Colombia or Mexico, the consequences would be catastrophic.
Colombia already hosts more than 3 million Venezuelan refugees and expects another 1 million to cross the border.
Meanwhile, Americans want more jobs at home, lower health care costs, and not another forever war that will spark mass migration and violence to their doorstep.
Regional Economic and Political Collapse
Despite Trump’s promise of liberation in Venezuela, its fragile economy and institutions are already showing cracks in their collapse. About 92% of Venezuelans live in poverty, and over one-third have fled to neighboring countries or the U.S.
Since the U.S.-backed coup against Maduro, it remains unclear who is exercising real authority in Venezuela.
Just recently, paramilitary groups in Caracas, the capital, have begun running illegal checkpoints, asking to see Venezuelan social media messages to detect their dissent. Venezuelans have lined up at grocery stores, banks, and gas stations to stock up on needed supplies in case the country escalates into further chaos.
With the U.S. blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, the country is on the verge of economic collapse as it has few international markets to sell its reserves.
Importantly, images of Venezuelan exiles in Miami and Washington, D.C., celebrating Maduro’s fall do not tell the full picture.
Venezuelans Reject Both Maduro and American Control
The average Venezuelan rejects U.S. occupation. Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez warned that Venezuela “will never again be a colony of any empire.”
Any attempt to exploit Venezuela’s oil, by Chevron or any other U.S. corporation, will face fierce resistance from the population. Venezuelans want sovereignty, not Maduro’s authoritarianism and not Washington’s colonial control.
Migration Is the Predictable Outcome
Every U.S. attempt to overthrow a sitting government in Latin America has led to long-term instability, not security. From Panama to Honduras, regime change has fueled violence, weakened institutions, and driven millions to migrate to the U.S.
In the 1980s, the Venezuelan population in the U.S. was 33,000. However, after decades of authoritarian leadership, U.S. sanctions, and oil blockades, the Venezuelan population has swelled to 770,000.
According to the Pew Research Center, the Latino population in the U.S. has skyrocketed from roughly 5 million in 1950 to 62 million in 2020 for multiple reasons, including high birth rates.
No wall, troop deployment, or enforcement surge can stop millions fleeing economic collapse and violence created or worsened by American intervention.
Americans should remember that today’s migration crises from Central America and the Caribbean are rooted in decades of U.S.-backed coups, economic sanction occupations, and economic coercion.
Diplomacy, Not Domination
If the goal were about fighting crime and drug trafficking at home and abroad, President Trump would have chosen a more humane and sustainable approach instead of military aggression.
On the domestic front, he could have developed economic and social policies to reduce crime, drug use, and unemployment in Black communities through education, jobs, substance abuse centers, and business.
On the international front, President Trump’s Latin American strategy should be rooted in diplomacy, development, and regional security cooperation. Trump could have also added pressure on the U.S. gun manufacturing industry to help stop the illicit trafficking of guns and weapons or better yet, urge congress to pass immigration reform.
More importantly, he could have restored U.S. soft power by reinstating the U.S. Agency for International Development and rehiring civil servants who had been removed from the State Department, given the global consequences. As of now, the US does not have an embassy, an ambassador, or a major presence in Caracas, so the transition would be chaotic.
President Trump could have done a lot of things. However, he doesn’t have time for diplomacy and development to work itself out. With the midterms around the corner and a possible third impeachment, he needs action fast.
Latin American countries are mitigating the fallout of U.S. foreign aid cuts and tariffs by engaging with friendlier international partners. President Trump’s abandonment of U.S. soft power exposes a pathway towards greater Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
Trump knows this, overplays his military hand, and puts the world on notice that America is still in charge. And once again, it is ordinary people, both in Venezuela and the United States, who will pay the price.
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